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The Black Swans

Black Swans are typically a metaphor used to describe an unforeseen event that has major global implications in terms of finance, economy, and other interlinked aspects. It is fair enough to consider that we are at a precipice of a global paradigm shift where in which we are seeing events after event, curated, to occur in conjunction with the last. There are numerous events that are unfolding around the world that most of the population is not aware of, much worse, not prepared.

Majority of the people, sheeple, consider black swan as something to be afraid of and panic. But there presents a unique set of opportunities for anyone willing to take the risk and ride the storm. To prepare and becoming resilient is better considered for this major upcoming economic storm that is moving towards a Great Financial Reset (To be discussed in the upcoming blogs)


"Here The War encompasses all the global conflicts that possess a potential to disrupt the world economy as a collateral damage."

Better coined by modern historians, military analyst, astrologers and youtubers, we may be in the beginning phases of global conflict that could culminate into a World War 3.

As of writing this blog, the major disturbances that are happening around the world are: -

  • Russia-Ukraine

  • Armenia-Azerbaijan

  • Riots in Iran

  • Destabilization of Pakistan

  • North- South Korean Tensions

  • THE Chinese

  • Flare up in the Middle East

To name a few. Considering there are many YouTube channels that analyze the above and make you choose a political side, here we try to be apolitical as possible as we decode how these events can affect us and an individual and as a community.

Of course, the War in another part of the world may not have an immediate nor a direct affect, it sure has an indirect and long-lasting affect, especially considering how interconnected and globalized our world is.

We are seeing critical infrastructure failing, global supply chains disrupted an important of all, we are seeing the slow decoupling of the Financial world. Where countries are moving away from the dollar and are establishing their own alternate means of value transaction mechanisms.

The Pandemic

The pandemic has taught us numerous lessons. While the world is still recovering from it and trying to trace its origins, one must not forget the impact that it had on us. With experts predicting that more and more diseases are lurking underneath the arctic to another pandemic on the horizon, the time has come to redesign the work culture and work environment.

With business shuttered every day to the closing of shopping malls, and massive unemployment, the fundamental way of the society is being changed. Therefore, planning a new venture that is resilient to externalities is essential for the survival in the long term.

Market Crash

The minor fluctuations that happen around the world influence stock Market crashes. An over-bloated inflated stock market is more susceptible to any mild disturbances that happen to any entity that directly or indirectly liked to it. Back during the great depression era, markets took many hours and even days to adjust, but today with algorithmic trading, fractional stocks ownership and high frequency trading which uses microseconds to make transactions based on AI powered sentiment analysis on Twitter and other social media sites the crash can affect vast swaths of the population.

As most of the retirement funds and pension funds are in the stock market tied to the market in some shape or form, the older generation that cannot work possesses the threat to lose all their life savings in a single day.

As of writing this blog, real estate market is crashing in major markets like US and UK where the houses are reported to be repriced approximately 25% below the asking price in some areas. With commercial real estate taking a major hit in the last 2 years because of the pandemic and work-from-home, resale homeowners are on for a major bumpy ride for the foreseeable future.

Adding to the above, the underlying MBS (Mortgage-backed securities) can be poisoned as well with the valuation changing of the houses changing. For those who do not remember the MBS, it was the financial instrument that caused the 2008 Global Financial Recession. Today they are repackaged as Collateralized Debt Obligation, a new fancy term for a new disaster, nothing more nothing less.


Central Bank Digital Currencies or CBDCs are a boon and a curse. While people argue whether a Central Bank is necessary, I can assure that the Central banks are here to stay, for now. Setting aside the privacy concerns and other issues that are feared by the people who stand as outliers in the society, it offers some advantages ( to be discussed later as a separate blog, stay tuned)

Introduction of CBDCs can disrupt the economy like a demonetization, which can impact the economy in the short term. It can affect the pricing of good and services and also impact the GDP.

Major Economies like the US, China and India are already working on it and is expected to roll out sometime next year.


Inflation is expected to rise in countries where the major source of income is from services sector and not manufacturing. Agrarian economies (economies based on agriculture) will probably see lesser inflation figures. European economies will have to bear the brunt of the rising food prices and energy cost because of their proximity to the war and also because of their political and financial interests in the region.

Turkyie (Turkey), a NATO member, is seeing a staggering 83% inflation rate and IMF warning of a possible recession. I believe a recession is inevitable for the European countries soon.

Food Crisis

"Developed" nations around the world do not have food security. They depend on developing economies for food and dairy products for survival. But recently developing nations are now imposing restriction on food export to prevent food price inflation and also to ensure food security for their native population, considering back-to-back climate emergency that is decreasing food production.

Not only the food protectionism but also the war in Ukraine has also exacerbated the crisis.

Climate and Natural Disasters

Floods, hurricanes, cyclones and droughts have become the daily keywords that we hear and see in the mass media. From floods in Pakistan to floods in Florida, people are affected by them irrespective of their economic status or race.

With climate crisis expected to exceed hundreds of billions of Dollar in the coming years, the economic strain will have be borne by the taxpayer. This will likely translate to more inflation.

Moral Decay and Rising Hate Crime

In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”

With the rising cost of living, loss of property, lack of jobs and an impending food crisis, we will see the global population up in arms around the world against their governments, neighbours and even other racial groups for matter otherwise thought as unimportant matters.

Riots were reported in at least 100 countries during 2021-2022 for various reasons.

Global Protest Tracker by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace- link.


As a result of a rise in crime and lack of basic amenities, coupled with the climate change, we will probably see a rise in the migration in the coming years. We have seen migration during the ISIS takeover of the Syria and Iraq, now we will likely see climate refugees along with people escaping poverty, hunger and crime.

This massive migration to Europe and the Americas will probably put a burden on the local economies and even add to the food crisis, pulling the population further into crisis and hardships.


With more and more crisis brewing, we can see major threats in the coming months. Here, in this blog I have just laid a few points I believe are the base rock to the upcoming threats that we are likely to see. In the comings days I shall go into detail and further explore the problems and solutions. Stay tuned!

FAQ Section

What is the Black Swan theory and how does it impact global events?

The Black Swan theory describes unforeseen events with major global implications, especially in finance and economy. Such events can cause significant shifts in global paradigms and can lead to financial resets, market crashes, and more.

How do global tensions and wars contribute to Black Swan events?

Global tensions, such as those between Russia-Ukraine or North-South Korea, can escalate unexpectedly, leading to unforeseen consequences in the global economy and political landscape, qualifying as Black Swan events.

How do pandemics relate to Black Swan events?

Pandemics, like the COVID-19 outbreak, can have sudden and severe impacts on global health, economy, and social structures, making them potential Black Swan events due to their unpredictability and widespread effects.

What role do CBDCs play in the financial landscape and Black Swan events?

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) represent a shift in the monetary system. Their adoption or failure can lead to significant changes in the financial world, potentially triggering Black Swan events.

How can inflation lead to a Black Swan event?

Rapid and unexpected inflation can destabilize economies, leading to financial crises, recessions, and other major economic events that can be categorized as Black Swans.

Why are climate and natural disasters considered potential Black Swans?

Severe climate events or natural disasters can have unexpected and far-reaching impacts on countries, economies, and global supply chains, making them potential Black Swan events.

How do moral decay and rising hate crimes influence global paradigms?

A significant rise in hate crimes or moral decay in societies can lead to social unrest, political upheavals, and changes in global paradigms, contributing to Black Swan scenarios.

How do migration patterns relate to Black Swan events?

Large-scale unexpected migration due to wars, climate change, or other factors can lead to socio-economic and political challenges in host countries, potentially leading to Black Swan events.

How do financial recessions qualify as Black Swan events?

Financial recessions, especially when unexpected, can have cascading effects on global economies, markets, and social structures, making them potential Black Swan events.

How do cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin relate to Black Swan events?

The rapid adoption or decline of cryptocurrencies can lead to significant shifts in the financial landscape, potentially triggering Black Swan events due to their unpredictability and impact on traditional financial systems.



All the articles in this website are originally written in English. Please Refer T&C for more Information

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