Jan 9, 202313 min read

Is it the End of Pakistan?

Since the partition from India in the 1947, Pakistan has had numerous events ranging from civil wars to military coups. Peace is a luxury in Pakistan. With a huge wealth gap in Pakistan, only a few people in Pakistan can afford such a luxury with high protection, higher influence and the best quality of services available in the country. With each passing crisis, most people in Pakistan are getting poorer and poorer. This kind of uncontrollable increase in wealth gap can cause a permanent decline of any country. And considering other factors like terrorism and internal divisions, the decline will also be violent.

In this article, we analyse the Pakistan as a nation and how its eventual decline will impact all the people in the world.

Why is Pakistan Facing this crisis?

Soulless Nation

To understand why Pakistan is a soulless nation, we need to look into the history.

For those readers that are not aware, the creation of Pakistan was based on a dispute on who wanted to be the first Prime Minister of India. The Muslims wanted the first Indian Prime Minister to be a Muslim, while the others disagreed. Therefore, the nation was divided based on religion. To summarize, the whole partition was done for 2 individuals (Mohammed Ali Jinnah and Jawahar Lal Nehru wanted to be Prime Ministers). The religion was only a tool for their purpose.

The partition of India was the single largest migration of humans in the entire world history. Families were separated, wealth was divided, and borders were drawn on the land that could not be divided. From a different perspective, this division can also be seen as an act by the British to never have peace Indian Subcontinent. Looking into history, we can see that most of the former colonies that were once colonised by the British had border disputes. Some countries even have them today. This was a deliberate act by the British to weaken the nationalism and to always divide the country in terms of language, religion, ethnicity, tribe or by wealth. The British tactic of Divide and Rule policy was implemented to minimise the growth of the colonies. This helped them to always rule the populace in terms of ideology and culture. When there is no sense of nationalism, there exists no national pride and therefore cultural heritage, traditions and other defining pillars of the nation are discredited by the native population. In simple words, the British did this to colonise the minds and actions of the colonial population; even after independence.

As mentioned in the previous articles, nationalism is the soul of the nation. Nationalism provides a purpose for each citizen and this, in-turn fuels growth. When nationalism is extinguished, the soul of that nation is dead and it spirals into a declining phase. Similar to how a body decomposes after death. Considering Pakistan, the nation's soul died with its first prime minister. And whatever is left today is the religious excuse that he had (M.A Jinnah). With globalization, religions across the world are diminishing. People are less religious and more modern. In pursuit of modernity, people are migrating and this is also the reason Pakistan is slowly declining.

Hate

The founders of Pakistan wanted it to be better than India. They aspired Pakistan to be ahead of India in every field. This is also the reason why the independence day of Pakistan was kept a day ahead of India. To always be a step ahead. To be better than someone, you can either improve yourselves or impair the other. It takes time, persistence, dedication and devotion to improve yourself; and therefore it is very difficult. But to impair an enemy, it is much easier.

Looking into history, we can see that Pakistan took the second option as its policy. Multiple wars were fought between Pakistan and India; all started by Pakistan. After multiple failure in all the wars fought against India, Pakistan started using its best weapon against India, i.e. Hate. Through terrorism and other proxies, they wished to destabilise India.

In order to create generational hatred, Pakistani-children were taught to hate India and Indians. The hate was spread among the populace though education, society and media. People that questioned such actions were given strict punishments under law dictated by religious clergy. Like Idi Amin said, " There is freedom of speech, but I cannot guarantee freedom after speech."

Financial Crisis and Corruption

When a nation goes to war, it activates its war economy. The economic activity will solely be focused on the war efforts and necessary necessities. Development and infrastructural maintenance will never be a concern. Education will be controlled; the children may be deprived of the right to education sometimes. Having a war economy can boost the economic growth for sometime. The manufacturing of war essentials boost jobs and provides income for the people. But having a war economy for generations can exhaust the resources.

Pakistan today faces a similar situation. Having done multiple wars, border clashes and cross-border insurgencies, the Pakistani government had taken a huge debt burden that can never be repaid using the current economic situation. Most of the money were used for non-productive tasks. This resulted in lesser returns on investments. Today, the credit rating agencies have marked Pakistani Bonds as CCC+ grade; which is considered as a high-risk investment. When Pakistani people's attention was diverted towards India and Kashmir, the politicians were engaged in corruption at the highest level. The law enforcement officers, army and the judiciary were all busy in corruption. As mentioned earlier, corruption is caused by the lack of nationalism and absence of law & order. If we consider the number of wealthy people leaving Pakistan on a daily basis, we can see that the Foreign Exchange reserve of Pakistan is also at an all-time low. If this continues to stay low for very long, then Pakistan won't be able to make payments for its imports. This will further worsen the crisis in Pakistan.

Monster that came out of Pakistan

When the Soviets reached Afghanistan, it was the "great strategy" of the United States to come to Pakistan and arm the Afghan fighters to fight the Soviets. After they overthrew the Soviets from Afghanistan, these trained and armed fighters were left in Afghanistan with no purpose. This group of fighters later came to be known as the Taliban. The training was aided to some extent by Pakistan; and therefore we can say that the monstrosity that we see in the region today was contributed by the Pakistan.

Today, the same Taliban is attacking the Pakistani Army on a daily basis. The Taliban element was never meant to be contained in one location since its creation. After 20 years of war and $1 Trillion in debt, US Army failed in Afghanistan. Comparing the failure of the US army, the Pakistani army won't survive days against the Taliban. The internal disturbances caused by the wealth inequality and corruption can aid the Taliban in their efforts against Pakistan; by recruiting fighters.

Other Monsters in the neighbourhood

The ISIS in Iraq is not a new threat. Its very existence is the foundation of all the terror that has happened in the past to Iraq, Syria, and the middle east. Today, due to the internal issues and the mass poverty, Pakistan is the perfect camp for new recruitments; desperate people will do desperate things for anything that can help them in their current situations. When poor people are offered money and food, they will take arms for those who provide them without questioning.

The sudden unexpected withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan has created a power vacuum in the regions and every terror organization is doing its best to seize opportunity. This is exactly what happened after the fall of the Soviet Union and the withdrawal of its troops. Similar to how sharks feast on the carcass of a dead whale.

ISIS has done recent attacks inside Pakistan and Taliban after the withdrawal of American troops. ISIS and the Pakistani Taliban is attacking the Pakistani Government to slowly weaken the morale of the Pakistanis. The secret of the Taliban's success in Afghanistan was that they use the terror to control the minds of the people. Any battle is half won when the enemy feels threatened in their minds. Terror attacks happen in big cities and not in any small villages. It's all about sending a message. This is the reason why we are seeing the Pakistani Army running away from the Taliban by abandoning the border regions.

Where is the Real Power that controls Pakistan?

To understand this question, we need to look a bit into the history. The nuclear race between India and Pakistan was a well know and documented one in the books of history. Indian nuclear program was successful at the end. But the Pakistani Program was not far behind. People think that the Pakistani nuclear weapon's sole purpose is to have a balance of power with the Indians in the region. Some people believe it is the reason why there was no war between India and Pakistan after that. To some extent, that is true. But that is not the only reason why there are Pakistani nuclear weapons exists.

Pakistani Army is the best army in the Islamic world. There is no doubt about that. Only "Islamic" country that can challenge that is Turkey; but constitutionally, Turkey is a secular country, and it is part of NATO, therefore it cannot take 100% independent military decisions as free as the Pakistanis. And considering the United States' attitude to other countries having nuclear weapons, people of the Islamic world needed a nuclear weapon for themselves. We can say, to an extent, that the weapons and the technology used for its developments are connected to the Arab world. This is also the reason why Arabs provide an unlimited amount of money as loans and aid to Pakistan, expecting nothing in return. The funding for the project can also be linked to them as well. The Pakistanis are "employed" to maintain the weapons of the Arabs. This is also the reason why Arabs are not even interested in having a nuclear program of their own. (Iranians consider themselves as Persians and not Arabs.) Therefore, we can say that the real decision-making absolute power of Pakistan is not in Pakistan but in the Arab world.

Anti-China Sentiment

In the past, colonialism had to be brutal, deadly and expensive. People had to be killed and enslaved by the colonizers. It also had reputational damages to the colonizers. Even today, Europe is accused of colonial crimes that they had committed in the past by their previous generations. All their success and wealth is directly linked to their past colonial history. Which is true in many ways. And for the generations to come, even if they had any true success in any field, it would still be linked to the colonial crimes and loot. They looted the entire world and got ahead while the others were plunged into darkness and misery.

Today it is different. Corruption in a country can easily be exploited by other countries for their benefit. Politicians in corrupt countries can be bought, silenced and enslaved using money and influence. The law and law enforcement can be made according to the foreign interests. Weaponized finance can make the country indebted forever. Finance can be used to enslave the people without them knowing that they are slaves. The laws that were put in place the protect the nation and its people can be used to colonies them. There is no need for any violence, no massacres, and no genocides. Therefore, there will be minimal accountability. The hate will be directed at their own people (the elected politicians). And the best of all, no loss of life for the colonizer. This is known as the modern day colonialism.

Pakistan is a victim of the modern day colonialism due to the corrupt politicians. The China-Pakistan economic corridor is an example of that. The Army official and politicians made immense wealth through false promises and selling of public assets. In Gwadar, the people are against the Chinese occupation as it is affecting their livelihood. Fishermen in the past have mentioned that the Chinese are using heavy and advanced fishing equipment to exploit the fishing resources that have been a source of livelihood for the local fishing community. This is one such example.

The Great Awakening

A frog in a well considers the well as its world, and nothing is bigger than it. Only when the frog comes out of the well will it see a different world. No one can be fooled forever. One day they will have a self realization and reassess the past. For Pakistani people, the great awakening is happening.

With the advent of the internet and globalization, new technologies have emerged and what was once thought as magic can now be done by each and every citizen on this planet. Dissemination of information from one part of the world to another is easier. And along with it comes a different perspective of life; to be more specific, a perspective that differs from that of the government and religious leaders. Today, modern Pakistanis are discovering the lies that were fed to them by the ruling class over generations using the mass media, religion and propaganda. The corruption, the useless wars and the abuse of the law is now in the open for the World to see.

But, for the stability of Pakistan as a nation, this great awakening is a bad thing. Let me explain. If we look at the expense of the Pakistani Government, we can see that the majority of the funding goes to the military and law enforcement. An uprising of the youth against the ruling class will be met with great resistance by the government, which will cause even more anger; which will again create more uprising and revolt. If you have any doubt, I suggest that you closely study the Iranian Anti-Hijab riots. Cyclical trap will not only result in loss of life but also the loss of a generation of people, fragile infrastructure and also the fragile economy. People will turn to any outfit organization that can help their cause. Already Pakistan is home to many notorious organizations that wreak havoc around the world. Therefore, we can expect to see these organizations getting stronger due to mass recruitment under false promises. In effect, replacing a group of well-protected fools with a bunch of non-negotiable warlords.

How will the end of Pakistan affect the Islamic countries? And how does the fall of Pakistan as a nation affect Islam itself?

Considering Pakistani is one of the most important Islamic nations on the Planet due to its military, population, and location; an existential crisis in Pakistan can have serious consequences in the region. The Pakistani refugee crisis will be much worse than the Syrian and Iraqi refugee crises. And the Pakistan army is considered the best in the Islamic world and that is also the reason why many Pakistani Generals have had great support. Recently, the Pakistan army was given the task of securing the FIFA 2022 by the Qatari officials.

Considering most of the Muslim countries are still autocratic, they always want a mercenary force that why can call upon during times of crisis. After the rise of Saddam Hussein, the Arab kingdoms downsized their military and reduced its powers (Some argue this is also the reason why the Saudi Army, with American weapons, are facing a difficult situation with the Yemeni Rebels.) The Arabs fear they can be overthrown from power if their military is too powerful and efficient. Thereafter, they have always funded and supported the Pakistani Army due to its army strength, nuclear weapons and willingness to fight for the Arabs (as a religious duty). Therefore, in the absence of a unified Pakistan army, most Arab kingdoms will forced to 100% rely on their own military; thereby risking a coup.

The Most Dangerous Disaster that is coming out of Pakistan

The imminent fall of Pakistan has the potential to affect each and every person on this planet. In other words, what we have seen in the Gulf War ( which affected the prices of food all over the world due to oil price increase ), Syria/ Iraq/ISIS war ( global terrorism and refugee crisis that is still affecting the security of the nations ), Ukraine-Russia ( Global Energy price increase ) and China-US trade war ( Global shortages of commodities ) will all look like a prelude to what can happen if Pakistan has a violent decline. Considering the history of Pakistan, where no prime minister has ever completed a full term in office, the decline and disintegration of Pakistan into multiple regions will not be peaceful.

Furthermore, the nuclear weapons stored in Pakistan can fall into the hand of the terror outfits operating in and around Pakistan when the Pakistani government is facing a coup or a populous revolt. The possibility of terrorists having a stockpile of weapons of mass destruction and chaos is the reason why the decline of Pakistan is more dangerous than the decline of any other nations. They can target any cities in any country using their existing networks of people. Launching a low range nuke from a merchant ship is a possibility if the target is far. Either ways, every country can be under their radar and if they succeed, then the death and destruction that they pose will be unparallel to any terror attack in history.

From a Financial Perspective, what does this mean to you?

From a Financial perspective, the disintegration of Pakistan will have negative effects to the neighboring countries due to the influx of migrants. Countries bordering Pakistan will have to accept the refugees due to the international law. Countries that are doing trade with Pakistan will also be affected. The impact of the effects will be proportional to the percentage of trade that your country has with Pakistan.

The terror outfits can have a whole new base of operation where they can launch attacks on other countries; thereby affecting their economies. Air traffic can get closed during a warlike situation and thereby cause the increase in prices for air travel and cargo passing through that area. We can see a similar situation in Ukraine where the airplanes have to avoid Ukraine airspace to travel. This phenomenon can increase global food prices and general inflation.

If Pakistan splits into different provinces, then there will be a few years gap before we can see reasonable growth in the economy. If Pakistan is overrun by terror outfits, then we cannot expect anything positive for at least the next 2 decades. In that case, we can see an Afghanistan like situation. If Pakistan gets absorbed by India, then India will have a tough time for the next 5 years in reintegrating people into their societies.

Hate begets hate. Hate should not be a tool to control the population; one day people will begin to question and the lies that were fed to them. Pakistan is going through a phase of self realization and analysis and people want something better for them. Pakistan will see more turmoil due to its outstanding debts and obligations. While most colonies are moving forward after independence, Pakistan is moving backwards by finding new colonizers. Now they have to gain independence from the Chinese (Chinese debt). And they have to ensure they don't get colonized by the other terror outfits. As an Indian taxpayer, I do not wish to see the reunification of Pakistan with India at this moment (due to its overwhelming debt, terror and crisis; maybe in the future). India is having an era of growth which should not be disturbed. And also, I do not wish to see Pakistan overrun by terrorists and multiple terror organization; because it is easier to handle one fool than to manage a group of clowns with guns.

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NOTE: This article does not intend to malign or disrespect any person on gender, orientation, color, profession, or nationality. This article does not intend to cause fear or anxiety to its readers. Any personal resemblances are purely coincidental. All pictures and GIFs shown are for illustration purpose only. This article does not intend to dissuade or advice any investors.